Ebola Incubation Period May Exceed 21 Days

Doctors are watching those who had contact with the first domestically confirmed Ebola cases in Dallas using a standard 21-day waiting period to see whether a person exposed to the virus will develop an infection.

The medical community came up with the standard for observation after past experiences with Ebola, but a study published on Tuesday in the journal PLOS Currents indicates that the virus’ incubation period could exceed 21 days for up to 12 percent of patients.

The new research, authored by Dr. Charles N. Haas of Drexel University in Philadelphia, is based on analysis of past Ebola cases, along with data on the first nine months of the current outbreak.
The study noted in its conclusion:

While the 21-day quarantine value currently used may have arose from reasonable interpretation of early outbreak data, this work suggests a reconsideration is in order and that 21 days may not be sufficiently protective to public health. Further, outbreaks such as the current West Africa EBOV are presenting an opportunity for careful collection of data sufficient to revise and update (perhaps in an adaptive fashion) such recommendations. It may be that incubation time itself is a function of intensity and nature of contact, which may also need to be considered. The estimate of appropriate incubation time would need to explicitly consider the costs and benefits involved in various alternatives, which would incorporate explicit computations from transmission modeling.

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CREDITS: ROLLCALL