Africa Still Having The Lowest Cases Of Covid

First time coronavirus busted in and blazed through globally creating fears with its rapid ways of infecting and killing hundreds to thousands to millions. 

This prompt public health experts to be worried that it could be catastrophic for Africa, with its populated cities, poor health sectors, lack of equipment for testing facilities.

The U.N. Economic Commission for Africa in April predicted roughly 300,000 deaths this year for the continent if the virus couldn’t be contained. But reverse is the case as it was the super powers that was hit despite the high sense of having great health care system.

Africa has been spared, with the worst of the experience on the rest of the world. As of Dec. 29, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention was reporting total of less than 3million cases and over 60,000 deaths for a population of 1.2 billion. That’s roughly one case for every 500 people, compared to one in 20 in Europe.

However the figure above may not reflect the specific figure currently. Overall, but technically, testing for the virus has been contained on the continent, which could be contributing to lower case numbers. 

South Africa, which has the highest testing rate in the region, was only performing 0.68 tests a day per 1,000 people in mid-December, compared to 4.3 in the U.S., according to Our World in Data (Denmark, which has the highest test rate, is currently performing 15.1 tests per 1,000). That might explain why the continent has lower-than-expected reported case rates.

As for COVID-19-related deaths, one way to estimate the true impact of the virus is to look at total excess deaths this year, calculated by comparing the overall mortality figures in 2020 to previous annual averages. 

Those figures in South Africa point to the possibility of a higher number of deaths from COVID-19 than the official records show. 

A report by the South African Medical Research Council noted that South Africa saw some 17,000 extra deaths from natural causes between early May and mid-July, a 59% increase in excess deaths compared to what was expected over the same period. 

However, the Africa CDC says there has been no indication that a large number of COVID-19 deaths have been missed.

If official numbers are to be believed, the African continent trails much of the rest of the world when it comes to case fatality rates, and there have been fewer scenes of overwhelmed hospitals and funeral parlors coming from the continent compared to other parts of the globe. 

Nevertheless, some countries across the continent are currently seeing increases in COVID-19 cases amid concerns of a second wave. South Africa has seen a sharp increase recently, amid evidence that a new variant has been detected; President Cyril Ramaphosa announced new restrictions on Monday, citing the daily record of 14,790 infections recorded on Christmas Day, which he described as “a cause for alarm.” 

Over the weekend, the country’s total recorded cases since the start of the pandemic reached one million at the weekend.African countries have largely defied the doomsday predictions. Why that might be the case is unclear. 

“If the data is reliable—and that is a big question mark for me—there would be multiple explanations for lower numbers, not one solid reason,” says Cape Town-based independent clinical epidemiologist Dr Nandi Siegfried. 

It could be due to a lower average age, a more favorable climate, solid public health policies or fewer co-morbidities on the continent—each offers an imperfect defense, which taken cumulatively, contributes to an overall protective effect.

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SOURCE: TIME